Douze Points: Social media and Eurovision

28 May 2010

By Peter Hoffer

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For those unlucky enough to live outside of Europe at this time of year, the Eurovision Song Contest is a spectacle that transcends description.  Where else can you find cheesy pop songs combined with political diplomacy?

This year's contest in Oslo is proving to be quite the open field.  Apart from psychic powers, how could one predict the winner?  As it turns out, social media may be the way.

Bookies have cited public reaction on online forums and discussion boards in their prediction that Azerbaijan will be this year's champion.  Apparently the Azerbaijan team recruited Britney Spears' producer and Beyonce's choreographer to win the contest.

However, Google has predicted that Germany will be the champion.  By tracking the searches made by people across Europe, Google sees Germany's version of Lily Allen winning by a landslide.  Last year Google correctly predicted Norway as the winners.

So who is right, the bookies' use of online communities or Google's prediction based on keyword searches?  The downside of the online communities is that they are usually the domain of only the hardcore Eurovision fans.  And with 250 million people predicted to watch the contest, this may not be a representative sample.  As for Google's predictions, not everyone uses Google as a search tool - particularly in Eastern Europe.  And we know how influential the Eastern Bloc can be in their votes!

Looks like we'll need to wait until the finals on Saturday.

As for our predictions, we'll go for the dark horse - Belgium.  He's like James Blunt, except you don't want to punch him.



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